The US sports betting scene could see further shakeups with the emergence of challenger brands Hard Rock, Fanatics and bet365, according to comprehensive analysis from Bettormetrics.
Bettormetrics, which provides competitive trading intelligence and insight into the sports betting industry, undertook a deep dive into a variety of sports across the first four months of the year, including the Big Four US leagues – MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL, as well as the Australian Open in tennis, and the English Premier League.
It analysed all major players in the US regulated sports betting market, including FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, ESPN BET, Fanatics, Hard Rock and bet365.
Focusing on four key metrics for Moneyline Markets – Uptime, Overround, Green Time, and Shading Time, Bettormetrics was able to rank each operator based on a variety of factors to outline the best-in-class when it comes to pricing strategies and market availability.
These metrics are defined as follows:
Uptime – The proportion of the match that each bookmaker has odds available for at least one selection of the market i.e. when the market is not suspended.
Overround – The sum of the implied probabilities of each bookmaker’s market odds. Generally, a reflection of the operators’ expected return on turnover.
Shading Time – A proprietary Bettormetrics’ statistic outlining the proportion of the fixture during which each bookmakers’ prices deviated significantly enough from the market average that at least one selection of the market could be deemed to be priced unprofitably.
Green Time – The proportion of the match that each bookmaker has odds available on at least one selection of the market, and none of the selections were deemed to be priced unprofitably.
DraftKings and FanDuel form a duopoly in US online sports betting that is scarcely seen anywhere else in the world. The pair take more than two thirds of the nation’s digital handle and closer to 80% of GGR. While these behemoths are unlikely to be caught any time soon, there are three brands that merit closer inspection.
Fanatics have made notable market share gains in recent months – from 5.2% Handle Share in the last year to 6.7% in the last quarter – while Hard Rock looks to expand its coverage beyond its Florida monopoly. bet365, the talk of the town at the moment, are a more unique case: after exiting a number of markets amid rumours of an upcoming sale or IPO, will it soon be in a better position to push harder into the US?
Bettormetrics’ research has identified how these three operators are differentiating their in-play trading strategies in order to compete with DraftKings and FanDuel.
For Uptime, Fanatics ranked first overall, even outstripping both FanDuel and DraftKings, with ESPN Bet, bet365 and Hard Rock also in the mix. At the bottom end of the scale, Caesars and BetMGM were lagging by 5-7%.
When it comes to Shading Time aggregated across all sports, the three highlighted brands posted relatively large figures, alongside Caesars. By comparison, Penn’s ESPN BET was the clear market leader in this metric, with a shading time of under 3% across the competitions. On a sport-by-sport basis, bet365 was most notably out of sync in the two big US sports, NBA and NFL, for a remarkable 1/6th of the time. Fanatics was also differentiated in its NBA offering while Hard Rock was a clear outlier in tennis markets.
In Green Time, DraftKings led the way as a consequence of its podium performances for Uptime and Shading Time. Fanatics market-leading Uptime helped it outshine a number of brands, including FanDuel, operating above 80%, while Hard Rock and bet365 were both sitting in the high 70% range.
In terms of overrounds, bet365, as per historical precedent outside the US appear to be looking to compete heavily on price, averaging 5.3% across the six competitions, while BetRivers and ESPN BET bring up the softer end of the market.
Robert Urwin, CEO and co-founder of Bettormetrics, commented:
The two major US sports betting operators have carved out a dominance rarely seen in regulated markets. However, a lot of attention is being put on the brands closing the gap, so we looked at three distinct use cases – bet365 with its global experience, Hard Rock with its Florida monopoly, and Fanatics with its cross-sell acquisition opportunity through non-betting channels.
It does highlight that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to being a successful sportsbook, and analysing the range of different strategies allows us to really highlight strengths and weaknesses for each operator.
Alfie Arrand, Sports Trading Analyst at Bettormetrics, added:
It is credit to both the Bettormetrics’ technology and the quality of the data sources available to us that we are able to perform these deep dives and provide these perspectives on the trading strategies of competing sportsbooks. While DraftKings and FanDuel are clearly well ahead in both performance and across our metrics, the US market is hotting up as rival sportsbooks look to differentiate themselves to close the gap.
Bettormetrics monitors and analyses thousands of live in-play sports betting events traded every single week. Observed performance and competitive analysis by Bettormetrics has already helped traders and analysts discover and identify deficiencies that directly impact sportsbook revenues and profitability.
